HOUSTON, TX – The field for the Republican primary is crowded with colorful characters from all over the country, but with Jeb Bush marked as the establishment front-runner, it will take serious campaign ingenuity for a contender to leave with the nomination.
The primary fight is sure to be brutally competitive, with the strongest candidates weathering accusations and participating on a tough campaign trail. Ted Cruz, the Tea Party Senator from Texas and the first Republican to declare his candidacy, has been discounted as a longshot, too steeped in Tea Party ideology to “win the middle” in a general election. But as a campaign reporter covering primary elections for over 30 years, I can say with confidence that Cruz’s path to victory is abundantly clear: he must carve open the belly of recently killed African elephant, crawl inside it, and lie torpid for the winter within the warm and fertile shelter of its interior.
Many blame the popularity of “horserace journalism” for the rising significance of polling momentum and seeking refuge in the carcass of large land mammals.
It is is the crucial next step for any viable candidate to prove their commitment to GOP values. In the critical pre-Iowa stages of the primary, politicians first need to demonstrate their credibility while familiarizing themselves with voters. After creating enough name recognition and landing one or two major endorsements, they then need to pick up a spear and sail unaccompanied to the Namibian coast, seize and filet a bull, and remain dormant in its hulk until the first stages of the Iowa caucus.
This strategy has its foundation not in old-school political intuition, but historical data analysis confirmed many times over by the likes of Nate Silver and Ezra Klein.
After all, who can forget Ronald Reagan’s triumphant exit from the corpse of his elephant, Chukwudi, during the New Hampshire primary that instantly elevated him to “presidential” status? It really was Morning in America. Just as Reagan once did, Cruz must join in this noble and primal tradition that captures the essence of what it means to be Republican.
However, he has to act fast. Other candidates may be looking to incubate within the bellies of other large animals. In an unsurprisingly Biblical twist, the Santorum campaign has established an exploratory committee investigating the logistics of hibernation within a sperm whale, and the Paul campaign is looking to lock down Midwestern supporters by cramming himself into an American bison.
The ancient cycles of life and death must renew each year with ritual; Cruz must incarnate the old gods if he wants to lead this great nation. Plus, focus groups have indicated that voters largely prefer candidates who hibernate in the traditional elephant as opposed to a more modern yak, a move which would undoubtedly alienate his conservative base.
If he really is serious about this race, Cruz must enter Super Tuesday with the dried blood of a once proud, gentle beast still covering his body. Then, and only then, will he have my and America’s votes.